Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool team is the lowest fouling team in the EPL with their game predicated on speed, flow and pressing. But when opponents can get into Liverpool player heads with drives and gamesmanship, things do not bode well for Klopp’s team.
By and large fouling slows the game, which is the opposite of what Klopp is looking for. In fact, not only is Liverpool the lowest fouling team in the EPL, it is also near the bottom of the league in being fouled. And so playing a gentleman’s football game, clean and fast is the ideal for Klopp’s men, it looks like some teams have figured out that there is a way to get to the presumptive EPL Champions.
The game against Athletico Mardid was eye opening in that it was a clear example of a team that came in with more than just a football game plan, but rather a fouling and referee manipulation game plan. While having a terrible ref made the situation worse, it opened up the question of what happens to reigning Champions League winners when the fouling games begin?
The Numbers
| EPL Games | Fouls Per Game |
| League Average | 10.58 |
| Liverpool | 8.29 |
| Liverpool Opponent | 8.11 |
With the way that Liverpool plays it is unsurprising to see that they commit on average almost two and a half fewer fouls per game than the average. The more surprising statistic is that opponents also commit fewer fouls than the average, and in fact commit fewer fouls than Reds do.
But while these are interesting numbers to compare and discuss, there is real value in understanding how this affects the team and their record. And the answer to that is pretty significantly.
In taking all the numbers for the current season from the EPL, Champions League, FA Cup and League Cup, a very clear trend arises: The number of fouls in a game directly affect the chances for Liverpool winning.
| Liverpool EPL, CL, FA Cup, EFL Cup Matches | Fouls Per Game | Opponent Fouls per Game | Difference |
| Wins | 7.8 | 8.5 | 0.7 |
| Ties | 9.7 | 10.4 | 0.7 |
| Losses | 10.4 | 7.0 | -3.4 |
In Liverpool wins, the team fouls less than the opponent, on average 0.7 fouls less. And while the number of fouls less than opponents stays the same in ties, the average number of fouls in the game committed by both Liverpool and their opponents rise by almost 2 fouls a game each which is a huge jump.
But the biggest thing that jumps out is the fouling in losses. On average in losses opponent fouls fall by 1.5 but Liverpool fouls jump by more 2.6, meaning that Reds are on average committing 3.4 more fouls than their opponents per game. When you look at the variance between Liverpool and their opponents for wins/ties vs losses, the numbers completely change from the Reds fouling slightly less to actually fouling significantly more.
Game by Game Analysis
The huge jump in the number of fouls between wins and losses can also be turned to look at a game by game analysis to see what individual wins and losses look like for the current season from the EPL, Champions League, FA Cup and League Cup .
| EPL, CL, FA Cup, EFL Cup | Liverpool Foul Less than Opponent | Liverpool Foul Same as Opponent | Liverpool Foul More than Opponent |
| Games Won | 18 | 2 | 15 |
| Games Tied | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Games Lost | 0 | 0 | 5 |
In terms Liverpool wins and ties, the number of fouls seems to be less significant because Liverpool is winning a significant number of matches either way. However the more significant number is in Liverpool’s 5 losses, where each and every game the Reds have fouled more than their opponents.
What that means for a statistician is that if you want to beat Liverpool, they must foul more than their opponent. There is no case where the Reds have fouled less and have lost a game this season. As such opponents need to be thinking that their best chance is to get the Reds to foul as it’s clear that when they are fouling you there is at least a chance to win.
For anyone who thinks I am breaking ground that nobody has noticed, I would bring your attention to the first leg of the Athletico Madrid game where it was clear that Athletico was focused on drawing fouls with clever ploys and diving.
Liverpool Analysis
The Athletico game clearly showed that it’s possible to get to Liverpool’s players, as Sadio Mane was carded and then taken off at half time by Klopp who was convinced that he would eventually be red carded. Athletico came in with a game plan to get as many fouls as possible and put pressure on the ref to make the calls. You could see Athletico coach Diego Simeone pleading with the ref to make the calls and give the cards, and the guess would have to be that their crew had come to the same outcome that getting Liverpool to foul at least gives you a chance to win.
The number of fouls can come from any number of reasons from the smart tactical foul to stop a counter attack to just a referee making poor call to opponents doing a good job of getting under the Reds skin. Regardless of any of these factors, the presumptive EPL Champions should be good enough to win games regardless of circumstances, but clearly there have been a few cases that hasn’t happened.
Whether the Liverpool players feel extra pressure or become more easily frustrated when the game isn’t going the way they want is debatable, but it is clear that the number of fouls they commit seem to directly tie to winning and losing. As such in future games, especially the second leg with Athletico, the Reds must stay within their game and keep the game flowing and foul less, because the simple truth is that they have yet to lose a game where their opponent fouls more than they do.
Daniel is a professionally designated accountant who has spent 20 years in the finance and data analytics field which has skewed his view of the sporting world. Instead of seeing simply an athletic competition, he sees a financial exercise waiting to be unlocked by data analysis. He enjoys reading professional publications such as the annual deloitte football report and team financials as well as spending hours putting together and analyzing football data, which saves his readers from having to do it themselves.
