Adama Traore to Liverpool – Discover why Liverpool Data Science said “NO”

Adama Traore is a beast…Liverpool are a wrecking machine: It’s a match made in heaven. How could Liverpool not want to pick up Traore? And all they have to pay is £75m.

On the surface it is not that unbelievable. However, think about it a bit and it gets a bit hazier. Think about it a lot, it is unlikely. But when you research the data out of it, the answer is a flat out ‘no’.

To think about it a bit, Wolves are in contention for not only Europa League football but also an outside shot at Champions League. And they are in fact still alive in Europa League this year. That means they need their best players, especially on a thin team, to be able to compete in both Europe and EPL to make it back to the Europa League next year. In the end it is not much of a surprise that a transfer did not happen in the January window.

But have no fear, the summer window will surely see Traore complete a transfer correct? How could it not? If Wolves qualify for the Europa or Champions League then Traore is going nowhere; even for £75m. If they miss the Europa or Champions League, there may be a chance he goes, perhaps for his own preference to compete in the big competitions but also so the team can cash in.

But then why would he go to Liverpool? He is a great player but currently spends a lot of time going down the wing and crossing into the middle. That is not how this Liverpool team use their front three. And the job of crossing on that wing is Alexander-Arnold’s; nobody is taking that away from him, not even Traore.

But then we hear that the beefy forward could be deployed more directly, or see a change Klopp’s system to accommodate his unique skill set. Just writing that makes me dumber, and you seeing it in black and white know it makes no sense. Could Traore be changed or have his method of play changed, sure, but is that worth the time and effort? And that is where the data comes in and says NO.

Adama Traore is a beast. In fact he is such a beast he must have torn through all the kits they gave him, leaving only the ones that are too small for him (seriously, get this guy a bigger kit!). But what is most concerning about Traore is his age, having just turned 24. This would normally not be a problem for a player of his caliber, there would still be years ahead of him to improve and hone his skills.

But the fact remains, Traore is a beast. And there seems to be an issue with beast players: they peak early. In this case, Traore has consciously made an effort to bulk up, it doesn’t seem to have been his natural body type when he was younger. Adding bulk has helped be more powerful on the ball, but carrying more muscles than his body is naturally built for compounds the problem.

Players traditionally peak between 27 to 29 and then start to decline at 29. Notably though forwards and center backs start to decline around 30 or 31. This would suggest Traore has 5 good years before a decline, but that’s not what the numbers suggest. To put it simply, muscular players peak early. From a physical point of view it makes sense, carrying more muscle is more difficult, slows you down, age hits you harder. But I’m a numbers monkey, not a physician, so let’s go to numbers.

As an indicator for non-statistics people, let’s look at players today that we can compare to. Dejan Lovern is a center back who is 30, and still considered to be at peak value. Gini Wijnaldum is a midfielder, 29, still at his peak. And on the forward side since Liverpool don’t have a forward that old, we’ll look at Manchester City to see Sergio Aguero who peaked at 29 (and is still playing pretty well at 31). So the average peak statistics make sense. Additionally, note that generally player drop offs are gradual. Players decline generally, they don’t fall off a cliff.

Now in trying to benchmark Traore, I looked at several larger more muscular and average players (focusing on EPL players), looking at their productivity by age and their transfermarket valuation. While numbers can be hit and miss, the valuation is fairly standard and regularly updated, so it provides an good insight:

The peak for these players should have been at their peak from 27 to 29, and in the case of the two center back, 30 or 31. After that there should have been a gradual decline. Terrifyingly, these players all peaked at least 2 years early, and when you look, some peaked up to 5 years early. In addition, their valuation dropped off the cliff. There were no slow declines or secondary plateaus, it was a huge drop off.

If you’re still not sure and don’t know enough about these players, think of a current Red, Xherdan Shaqiri. Why do I bring him up in this context, I’ll let Klopp explain: “His physique is different to all others I ever saw, his muscles are unbelievable.” And therein lies the real problem Shaqiri just turned 28 in October, and he has been injured for the majority of the season, appearing in only 10 games.

It is sadly looking more and more like he may not be a full time injury free player going forward, putting his peak at 26 and his sharp rop off being at 27-28 due to injury. His skill and ability are undeniable, but he is a muscular player who simply cannot stop getting muscle injuries, something that is all too common among muscular players.

Given the peak age numbers and looking at Shaqiri as a real life example, there’s a possibility that Adama Traore is literally at his peak now, 5 years before the regular player peak. Giving him the benefit of the doubt, lets say he peaks 2-3 years early, that would leave Liverpool, who do not have unlimited funds, with only a couple years of peak Traore for £75m. For Liverpool’s Data Science group, this would be a basic exercise to understand player peaks and useful years, and so the clear direction coming from them would be not to invest in a player who couldn’t excel during the standard 5 year Liverpool contract.

In the end, Traore may or may not stay with the Wolves, but as exciting as it would be to have him at Merseyside, he will not be beasting for the Liverpool team.