Having broken the 30 year drought on an EPL title, the waaaaay too early question has come up for Jurgen Klopp and his Liverpool team as to whether this is the beginning of a dynasty like the one Sir Alex Ferguson led for Manchester United.
Klopp was understandably humble and quite reasonable in his assessment, indicating that other teams today are in a much stronger position than the teams Manchester United was competing against during their run and it would be unlikely for any team today to repeat that success. In response Roy Hodgson, a former Liverpool manager and now manager at Crystal Palace, offered his assessment that it would be possible and that Liverpool are already on the way to becoming that dynasty.
So is it possible for Liverpool to build a dynasty in today’s game? And can they match that greatness of the Manchester United dynasty? This is a surprisingly loaded question that has as much to do with the past (Man U) as it does the present and future (Liverpool).
Was Man U really that great?
The Manchester United run under Sir Alex Ferguson has reached legendary status and been identified as one of the greatest dynasties of any sport. It spanned 21 years with 13 EPL titles. There is little doubt that this type of winning would qualify as a dynasty but interestingly at the time, during the run, there was not talk of a massively dominant United who were the de facto winners before the season even started (in the same vein that Liverpool and Manchester City are discussed now).
In looking back with a critical eye based simply on the numbers, it can be argued that Manchester United were simply a very good team that played at just the right time; winning consistently, but never dominantly. There were no seasons where they flirted with 100 points. In fact during the 21 year run they broke 90 points only 3 times, and during that same period three other teams broke the 90 point mark. Those three teams won the EPL title in that year, not United.
In fact Man U averaged 86 points over their “dominant” run, and won the league twice with less than 80 points (actually winning in 1996-97 with a mere 75 points). To be clear, averaging 86 points a season for 21 years is a remarkable achievement and Manchester United should be hailed for that level of consistency; but consistently very good is not a dominant dynasty.
Looking a bit further you can see clear evidence that United through this stretch took advantage of a particular situation that existed in the Premier League as opposed to being a top team in the world. During their 21 year run they made it to 4 Champions League finals, winning 2 and losing 2. During the same period, AC Milan won 3 and lost 3. Barcelona and Real Madrid won 3 each. Even Liverpool and Chelsea won one each. In fact during the majority of their run from 1992-93 to 2006-07 Manchester United only made it to one final.
To be clear, feats like the treble win in 1998-99 were a remarkable achievement, but consider that they won the EPL title with 79 points that year. They won 22 of 38 EPL matches, or less than 60%. Again, these types of numbers suggest a very good team that won consistently, but not up to the level of greatness. In terms of titles the results were great, but all other measures suggest a team of goodness, not greatness.
Man U Financial Advantage
Manchester United enjoys a domination over the rest of the EPL in terms of revenue. We know this through the current day reporting requirements that teams have as well as the extremely handy Deloitte annual Football Money League. Unfortunately during the majority of the run, this type of reporting was not required so numbers during the “dynasty” (in particular at the beginning) are not that easy to find. Therefore some comparisons are not ideal but you can see a pretty clear picture from the numbers that do exist.
Back in 1992-93 the top earners in the EPL were earning over 2 times what the bottom earners were making. That number grew to a high in the 1995-96 season where United was the top earner and made more than 2.5 times the bottom earners. This type of inequity continued until 2003-04 when a redistribution of the money in the EPL brought the difference below double for the first time. But the earning difference only dropped down to about 1.5 in 2010-11, and has stayed in that range and is now at the lowest point it has ever been since the difference started to be tracked. In short, during their run, there was a greater earning disparity in the EPL than today.
Additionally Manchester United at the time had the largest stadium in the EPL, a fact that is amazingly true today, as Old Trafford opened in 1910 and has always had a capacity of about 75,000 fans. That was the largest in 1992, and it’s still the largest today. This is important because in 1992-93 the broadcast revenue was only £191M so gate revenues accounted for a huge percentage of the money teams had. In fact the broadcast revenue only really exploded in 2013, which coincides with the last EPL title that Man U won. All this to say that Manchester United has enjoyed a clear revenue advantage during their run.
And this revenue advantage led to getting and keeping top players with top salaries. Since 1992-93 Manchester United total salaries have always been more than 100 times the average EPL wage. In 1992-92 it was 102.5 times the average, and in 2010-11 it had grown to 113 times. To put that in perspective, Liverpool is around 36 times the average wages, so clearly spending significantly less than United was able to spend in their run. And the money advantage also shows in the players they were able to buy, like Roy Keane and Andy Cole for record prices in 1993 and 1995 respectively.
Liverpool Greatness – not a dynasty
There is no denying that Liverpool is a great team. They have broken numerous records, have won the EPL title for the first time in 30 years and already have a Champions league from 2019. Not only that but under Klopp they made it to the Europa League final (losing) and to the Champions League final twice (win one, lose one) and last year had 97 points which eclipses anything Man U had in their 21 year run.
While this could be on the way to a dynasty, it is not there yet. There is a great base to show a top team, not only in the EPL but in Europe and the world as well (Liverpool also won the Club World Cup this year), but it would take more longevity and more titles to be able to call it a dynasty.
Additionally a dynasty would need to have a changing of the guard, older players leaving to be replaced by a new crop of stars and the machine to keep running. Liverpool has the possibility to do that, but it’s not there yet.
Liverpool’s Financial Advantage – None
To put it simply, Liverpool have no financial advantage compared to the rest of the league. In terms of revenue Liverpool is behind Man U by a significant margin, behind Man City by a bit, and just ahead of Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal. And while Liverpool is working to increase their revenue, they simply cannot dominate over other teams in salaries and transfer market like Manchester United did during their run.
Liverpool also has a disadvantage in terms of owner wealth with John Henry being in the lower half of EPL owners in terms of net worth. So there is no deep pocketed patron coming to pump money into the team to help them in their quest for a dynasty. That is clearly evident in seeing the deal for Timo Werner fall through due to the team not being willing to meet the release clause.
To be clear Liverpool are not a poor club and can spend large sums on players when necessary, as shown by setting records to a defender (Virgil Van Dijk) and a keeper (Alisson), but keep in mind that the funds for those transfers came from the sale of another player (Philippe Coutinho). Additionally, it is fun to mention that the record for a keeper was eclipsed in a week and the record for a defender was eclipsed in a year by none other than Manchester United.
Man U then vs. Liverpool now
In trying to compare the two teams, it’s best to fall back on coach, philosopher and overall great guy Jurgen Klopp’s actual quote on whether Liverpool will be able to compare to the United of old: ‘I don’t think it is possible any more to be honest. Other clubs didn’t have United’s combination of an exceptional manager and squad at that time but now a lot of clubs are similar.”
The EPL is now a more balanced league, with more revenue being shared due to the rich broadcasting deals as is shown in the ratio of highest revenue to lowest revenue dropping every year. As Klopp says, there is more balance. Additionally, you look at the “top clubs”, and it isn’t just Liverpool and Manchester United, there’s Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal, all big money big name clubs. Those 6 clubs are in the top 10 in Europe in terms of revenue. So there is more parity in the league than during the Manchester United run and more “big teams” than before as well.
In that vein, it is clear that Liverpool simply are not the lone big fish in terms of money, and it is clearly showing in the deals they are not making and the fact that they are not spending freely like United was able to do (and in fact still is able to).
That is all partnered with a new world where winning the EPL requires a truly heroic points haul due to the rise of the other big teams in the EPL. During their run United played in a strong English league, but it was not the cream of the crop that it is today, widely acknowledged as the top league in the world. So to make a multi year multi championship run is simply more difficult with the step up in competition.
The current Liverpool team is a team of legend, overcoming oil money and (alleged) cheating Manchester City to win the title with a well built but not excessively expensive team. The potential to grow into a dynasty is there, but it will take careful grooming and a continuance of the prudent acquisitions Liverpool has made recently while avoiding the errors that could cost the team dearly. But even with all that, it seems that the deck is stacked against any team trying to repeat the Manchester United goodness simply because of the way the EPL is today and the financial realities of the game.
So for now it’s time to enjoy a great EPL title for 2019-20, to follow the World Club Cup and the Champions League title and hope that Klopp can keep his team heading towards continued greatness.
Daniel is a professionally designated accountant who has spent 20 years in the finance and data analytics field which has skewed his view of the sporting world. Instead of seeing simply an athletic competition, he sees a financial exercise waiting to be unlocked by data analysis. He enjoys reading professional publications such as the annual deloitte football report and team financials as well as spending hours putting together and analyzing football data, which saves his readers from having to do it themselves.