Liverpool opponent warning: beware the corner. The Liverpool corners and even your own corners against Liverpool.
Set plays have become a high focus area for many teams providing a controlled situations and a higher probability of scoring than from open play. The primary set play in football is the corner kick, and teams focus on increasing their conversion of corner kicks to goals. EPL teams are crunching data to see what works, but something sneaky has happened this season: the analysts aren’t looking at what doesn’t work … and the Reds are taking advantage (and generating more assists in the process).
Everywhere around the league analysts are crunching numbers to find what works best and focusing on that. They advise pushing the tallest players up front as they have the best chance to score which usually results in center backs being the main focus for a corner. They draw up and practice set plays. And the effort is paying off.
If you look back, 10 years ago in 2008-09 the conversion rate was 2.68% but in 2018-19 it was 3.74%. The top teams in the league in 2018-19 were Burnley with 7.1% conversion rate and second was Brighton with 6.4% conversion rate. Coach commentaries from both of those teams indicated that they focused on scoring from their set pieces, and the numbers show that. So the analysis of what works is clear, and Liverpool are learning their lessons … in fact it may be time for the student to stop learning and start teaching.
To put it simply, the Reds dominate corners. To clarify that statement, Liverpool corners were average early in the season, and more recently Liverpool corners are becoming lethal. But this isn’t just about Liverpool corners, it’s about opponents corners too. Onto the numbers…
Liverpool’s Corners
It doesn’t take an analyst to look at the size, strength, speed and skill of Virgil Van Dijk and tell him to go into the opposing box for a corner kick. Van Dijk has 4 goals this EPL season, all from headers on set plays. But he is not the only weapon the Reds have.
In fact, the Reds have scored 13 goals from corners or plays immediately after corners this year. For those who love numbers as much as me, that’s a 7.9% conversion rate from corners or plays directly following corners. Liverpool is fantastic … or at least now they are.
| Rate of Scoring from Corners | |
| League Average 2018-19 | 3.7% |
| League Leaders 2018-19 | 7.1% |
| Liverpool first 10 games | 3.2% |
| Liverpool next 15 games | 10.8%* |
Liverpool Corners … A Deeper Dive
In looking at the numbers, something glaring jumps out. Liverpool started out the season decent at corners and then once the calendar turned to November, they entered Beast Mode.
The first 10 games of the season were not stand out for Liverpool in relation to corner kicks. The Reds converted only twice for a rate of 3.2%, which is actually below average. But then it all changed.
Liverpool coach Jurgen Klopp has alluded to the fact that the statistics group has made suggestions and the team has followed. He never said what the suggestions were, but I’m willing to wager a guess and say that it had to do with not being good enough on corners. Defensively the Reds were perfect, no goals allowed from corners, but a corner conversion rate was below average for a decidedly above average group.
The educated guess here is that time was put into drawing up plays and practicing routes and sets, and then in November, Liverpool unleashed the fury upon the league! (trying to make it dramatic because … well … look at the numbers, it’s dramatic).
In the first 10 games of the season, Liverpool scored 10 goals from corners or plays continuation from goals. In the next 15 games to the winter break, they scored 11 goals … on virtually the same number of corners. The conversion rate on corners or plays continuing from corners went from 3.2% in the first 10 games, to 10.8% in the next 15 games!!! (Oops, should have warned you to sit down before reading that sentence.)
Liverpool have cracked the code. If they don’t score directly on a header when the ball comes in, they press and fight and score … 10.8% of the time. A more practical view would be the Reds score on just over one out of every 10 corners! That rate would be 50% higher than the highest rate of conversion from 2018-19 season (belonging to Burnley). Phenomenal!
Opponent Corners
But the corner phenomenon doesn’t end there. Liverpool’s conversion rate on corners extends, improbably enough, to opponent corners. With Virgil Van Dijk patrolling the Liverpool box, heading away opponent corners is a matter of course. In fact the Reds have given up one goal from a corner (to Everton) this season from over 100 corners surrendered. That is a less than 1% conversion rate. Amazed? Just wait.
The more astounding number is 2.78% conversion rate (3 goals on 108 corners). That is Liverpool’s conversion rate on opponent corners. Translation is, if you’re taking a corner against Liverpool, the Reds are 3 times more likely to find the back of the net that you are. And that’s just direct fast break goals. If you include further play, there are another 3 goals for the Reds within the next minute or two after the corner.
Opponent Corners … A Deeper Dive
| Rate of Scoring from Corners | |
| League Average | 3.74% |
| Opponent Rate Against Liverpool | 0.93% |
| Liverpool Scoring on Opponent Corners | 2.78% |
As with the Liverpool corners, there’s more than meets the eye. That’s because there are two parts of the season to this statistic as well. The first part is the first 14 games of the season where the Reds scored no goals on opponent corners. But in the next 11 games, they scored their 3 goals. That translates into a 6.5% conversion rate … on opponents corners!
You read that right, Liverpool are defending at a sub 1% conversion rate for the season and are, in the last 11 games, at 6.5% conversion on opponents corners. If you look at the scoring chart, it almost looks like Klopp and company worked on scoring on the Reds corners for the first part of the season, then when they figured that out they turned to figuring out how to score on opponents corners.
Analysts View
The simple question that comes out of this is why haven’t other teams changed how they play? It is always considered the safe move to put the ball out of play for a corner instead of risk something against an attacking opponent. But does that rule still apply for an opponent who is converting at 10.8%?
And likewise, Liverpool opponents still send up their center backs and run their standard plays for corners when it is clear that the probability is higher that they will give up a goal than score one. While the statistics in general show corners are higher probability plays, those norms simply don’t hold against the Reds.
And here is where Liverpool have the advantage. Analysts look at trends and general data, but when Liverpool is operating outside of the data norms, opponents are playing right into their hands. To put it into more functional terms, instead of playing out from the back, boot it out, don’t risk giving up a corner. And on kickoff, the Reds shouldn’t play the ball forward, they should kick it into touch for a corner kick, and not just to intimidate and mess with the opponent, but because statistically, it’s actually the right move.
Daniel is a professionally designated accountant who has spent 20 years in the finance and data analytics field which has skewed his view of the sporting world. Instead of seeing simply an athletic competition, he sees a financial exercise waiting to be unlocked by data analysis. He enjoys reading professional publications such as the annual deloitte football report and team financials as well as spending hours putting together and analyzing football data, which saves his readers from having to do it themselves.
