The 2019-20 season for Liverpool has been a continuation of the domination they showed at the end of the 2018-19 season. It seems like a continuation, but it’s not. This team has changed. More than that, it’s evolved. Klopp has emphasized passing; more specifically assisting on goals. And it’s not subtle. It may be hard to imagine there was a change for a team who started 2019-20 undefeated in 27 games following being undefeated in it’s final 17 games of 2018-19, but the numbers don’t lie.
2018-19 – Individual Greatness
Last year was one of the greatest seasons for an EPL team but it hid a major issue for Liverpool. Yes there were plenty of wins and a ridiculous point total, but there was an underlying issue: too many goals were coming from individual examples of greatness as opposed to build-up to goals. This can be seen through the number assist ratio, as in the number of goals scored with assists, and conversely the number of goals scored without assists.
Liverpool was actually in the bottom quarter of the league assist ratio with less than 60% of goals coming with an assist, meaning more than 40% of the goals came without assists. The league assist ratio average was nearly 70% but Liverpool was nowhere near that. While there were still a lot of goals, the team clearly relied more on individual greatness to generate goals rather than through solid team play and precise passing to cut open the opponents.
As a comparison, the top team in the league was Chelsea with over 80% of goals coming from an assist. While Chelsea were not close to Liverpool in terms of quality, they did finish the season in third place and won the Europa Cup to boot.
When looking at other significant teams, Liverpool were about the same assist ratio as Manchester United, which is not a good place to be. The Man U 2018-19 team (much like the current season group) is not doing well, but more important do not look like a cohesive unit. And so Liverpool having a similar assist ratio to them is somewhat concerning and would suggest a team that do not work well together, which didn’t seem to be the case, but the numbers suggested it to be the case.
2019-20 – Team Greatness
Clearly this was an area that team coach Jurgen Klopp looked to improve, and so they have. Klopp has mentioned numerous times about how the “stats guys” brought something to him and they looked to make a change. You can bet this was one of them. This season’s Liverpool team is predicated more on combined team strengths than on individual brilliance. In fact it’s a complete turn around from last year.
This year Liverpool leads the league in just about every assist measure. They lead the team in assists despite not leading the league in total goals. That translates to a much higher assist ratio. Liverpool’s assists per goal ratio is at 81.3%. And when you look at year over year numbers, Liverpool stands alone at the top with an improvement from last year of 21.7% change in assist ratio. Second place team improved by 13% and nobody else was in the double digits.
The passing and teamwork is clear as Liverpool control the ball, but it is significant that they have made efforts to provide that through ball or cross to help the forward not have to go it alone. This team approach has left defenders in a tough position of not only having to defend against individual greatness by the forwards but also the inspired passing for the forward to feast on.
In fact you can see it in the ridiculous stat that Liverpool have scored more off opponent corners than opponents have scored. They breakout as a team and pass effectively to get to the opponents net when they’re still behind the play. You can also see the emphasis on assists in game when a chance is created through a combined team effort, even if there is no goal Klopp applauds the opportunity and success of the buildup. And it seems like the players put the special effort in when they get that pass through to make the goal happen; yes, the numbers say that’s actually true.
2019-20 – A Deeper Dive, the Expected Assist – Wait, what?
The concept of expected goals has floated around for a while. Expected goals is the percentage likelihood that a goal will be scored from a given chance. Liverpool’s an expected goal number that is actually 7 goals below their actual goal number, meaning they are finishing more clinically than average.
Delving into the slightly bizarre though, is the expected assist number. To keep it at a high level, the number is calculated based on the expected goals from any given pass. As an example, a top notch pass through the box along the 6 yard box with players attacking in the middle would be a high expected assist number (close to 1).
If Liverpool’s expected goal difference of 7 goals demonstrates clinical finishing, the expected assist number of almost 12 less is nuts. It means that Liverpool players have scored almost 12 more goals than expected from passes. So Liverpool players are converting mediocre or lower level chance into goals at a higher rate if they are being passed to. It’s almost mind blowing to say, but just look at the example above where Mane takes a pass in traffic, has a less than ideal first touch and an off balance shot but scores.
Why the players are scoring more than expected from passes is a point of debate. It could be a higher sense of obligation to the passing player or Klopp has instilled something in them about assist but it seems like the players are rising to the occasion to get the passing players assists.
Team Liverpool Effect
While Liverpool is scoring about the same goals as last year, there is a clear effect to generate chances through clever plays and through balls rather than one man efforts. The result is that while Liverpool looked amazing in 2018-19, they look almost mythical in 2019-20 (at least until the Watford game). Clearly the emphasis to generate chances as a team rather than manufacture them individually has helped the team take the next step in their evolution and grow into an even more dangerous juggernaut.
Daniel is a professionally designated accountant who has spent 20 years in the finance and data analytics field which has skewed his view of the sporting world. Instead of seeing simply an athletic competition, he sees a financial exercise waiting to be unlocked by data analysis. He enjoys reading professional publications such as the annual deloitte football report and team financials as well as spending hours putting together and analyzing football data, which saves his readers from having to do it themselves.
