Mbappe to Liverpool: The Only Move That Makes Sense

Kylian Mappe missed a cruicial penalty kick for France. But the real question coming out of it somehow is: where is Mbappe going? Mbappe to Liverpool is going to happen? Mbappe is going to stay at PSG. Mbappe is going to Real Madrid. Every “anonymous source” has spoken about where he’s going and let’s be honest, nobody knows, probably not even the young Frenchman.

The real question should be where can Mbappe go? And while it seems like the world is open to him, there are really only a handful of clubs that are an option. But when you look a bit deeper, there aren’t really many options that make sense, both for himself and for the team.

As such, let’s look at the teams that have been mentioned and who could actually be a real option. Keeping in mind that the only options worth discussing are the major clubs with boatloads of money for a huge transfer fee and for a huge salary, we’ll take a look at the top 10 money earners based on Deloitte’s annual report (and add in Arsenal who is number 11 but have a crazy rich owner).

The Fatally Flawed options

Barcelona

Barcelona are a team on the way down, and that’s just on the field. Beyond that they have a €1 Billion debt, and they need to shed players with bad contracts and bring their expenditure to a reasonable amount. None of this suggests that it’s a good landing place for and star right now, and seemly everyone knows it. The rumors of the Frenchman’s move to Barcelona have cooled and it is not a realistic destination, both for the on field team and the off field money issues.

Juventus

Juventus is the top team in Italy (although if you look at last year’s standings you might question that) both in terms of ability to attract talent and in terms of money. But their big big splurge 3 years ago to get Cristiano Ronaldo at under €100 Million shows that they aren’t really in the money ballpark it would take for Mbappe. Also, the team itself doesn’t necessarily lend itself to the Frenchman’s skills and it’s no secret that Serie A has become a bit of a slower and back-half-of-your-career league. This isn’t where up and comers go, it’s where they leave.

Bayern Munich

Unlike Juventus, Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga are where young players who have proven themselves go. However Bayern for the most part look to pull from within the Bundesliga as opposed to from outside leagues. Frankly it almost appears as if the whole league is nothing but a farm system for the perennial top team Bayern who can buy young and exciting forwards at a fraction of the price of the French star.

Bayern won the Champion’s League last year and frankly have no reason to spend a huge amount on a young player when they are currently very well stocked in forwards and have the ability to get cheap up and comers from other teams in their division. Also, for a top players like the young Frenchman, what would be the glory in going to a team that is already the best in their league and recently one the Champion’s League? If they win again next year, it won’t be due to his arrival and it won’t build his brand.

Manchester United

To give you an idea of why this is a flat no, I’ll provide full disclosure. I almost finished this article before having to come back and write about Man U because, frankly, I had so totally dismissed them. Why? Not a hard question to answer. Take your pick. Bad owners, bad team, bad match, one big hot mess.

This team has the revenue, but the owners are taking money out regularly, they are not committed to long term glory, they are committed to long term money flowing to them. Also, this team is a hot mess. Yes they finished second in the Premier League but their underlying statistics show a deeply flawed team that had a run of luck as opposed to a team on the edge of breaking through. Look no further than their loss in the Europa League final. That shouldn’t have been a close game. And it definitely shouldn’t have been a loss!

Additionally there are good players on the team, but they play individually and are exposed against well organized teams. Their superior talent keeps them winning, but this team will not be collecting silverware until they commit to a team approach, and the players on this team seem to prefer the lassies-faire style they have today. A player like Mbappe would maybe have fun playing how he wants, but he wouldn’t grow and he wouldn’t win title. Kylian is not going to a mess of a team.

Tottenham

The Spurs are a team in flux, and how knows that next year will look like. They have found a good coach in Nuno Espírito Santo, but with Harry Kane wanting to leave there are a lot of questions about what this team will look like next season and in the future. There is already a premier forward in Son Heung-min and if Kane doesn’t leave they have two. Could they use Mbappe, of course, but given the team has limited money after building a new stadium, it’s unlikely they would be able to afford it, and Nuno would need to see what he has before he starts making huge changes.

The Flawed Options

Chelsea

Chelsea’s year was a season of two teams. There as the team under Frank Lampard that failed to impress, and there was the team under Thomas Tuchel that won more games and won the Champion’s League, but still left a lot of questions unanswered. Chelsea bought every young, up and coming forward they could find the last couple years (like Timo Werner and Kai Havertz) and by the end of this season were in the same position as they were before, trying to figure out which of their youngsters to push forward with. All have shown flashes of ability and have also disappointed.

The only option that could see Chelsea sign Mbappe is if they give up on their newly acquired players, sell them and go after the French star, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. You have to see what you have before you can sell players. Also keep in mind that Tuchel is the same person who coached Kylian at PSG up until this past season and he wasn’t willing to re-sign at PSG last summer, so maybe there’s a preference not to play for him.

While Chelsea seems to be knocking on the door long term success, there are still a lot of questions and there is no guarantee the end of last season wasn’t just a flash in the pan that will quickly be replaced by the reality of the team is good but not great. Either way, this is a long shot that doesn’t make a lot of sense.

Manchester City

One thing that cannot be denied is that Man City have the money to do whatever they want. They have proven numerous times they ignore Financial Fair Play rules and have also proven when caught they can get around them. So the money is there.

But there are a few drawback that make this a less than ideal partnership, starting with the fact that Man City has a small fan base and for lack of a better way of putting it is a small club that won the lottery and found a rich owner. There’s no history, no decades of glory, no aura other than what the current product is. At Man City, this doesn’t mean more, it just means you’re at Man City.

Now Man City are perennial Premier League winners at this point, so joining a team that is winning all the time tends to diminish how significantly you can affect the group. Mbappe might be able to push Man City through that Champion’s League window they can’t seem to get through but that’s not likely to push the star’s brand.

Also, Man City coach Pep Guardiola doesn’t ride individuals exclusively, preferring to spread time around the players, so for a young guy like Kylian who is looking to be in an every game starting role, he would definitely see his impact and his stature muted to a degree at Man City.

Finally is the questions of whether Pep is the coach to get the most out of his players, or whether he just brings in top players and works them into the team. Yes, Pep can help players get better, but he can also help players get works, case in point Raheem Sterling who both grew and then diminished at Man City, only to star for England at the Euros after a season of small and smaller role with City.

While in a lot of ways this would make sense to give Kylian the silverware he is looking for, I’m sure his advisors see as well as I do that this wouldn’t give him the starring role at a historical club that would make him the next Ronaldo/Messi.

Arsenal

Arsenal wouldn’t even be in this conversation if it wasn’t for their crazy rich owner Stan Kroenke who is work in around $10 Billion. Arsenal doesn’t have to be financially responsible because their owner has the money to piggy bank any acquisition they want.

But Arsenal is now a team trying to rebuild the right way. They are clearly on a path and that path isn’t anywhere near completion. Last year they finished in 8th place in the English Premier League so there is European football for them, and as such a player like Mbappe wouldn’t be interested in going and it probably wouldn’t match their long term building strategy to bring in a player looking to win now.

The Possible

Real Madrid

Real Madrid make a lot of sense. They are a very good team with loads of everything: money, history, top players, fan base. For any player, especially a young star, there is a lot to like. This team wins in Spain by default as there is no serious competition outside of Barcelona who are on the downswing (except for last year where Athletico Madrid broke through last year to win La Liga).

Also they are basically guaranteed Champion’s League every year because of the weakness of the rest of the teams La Liga. And the fan base is huge, right up there with Barcelona and Man U as the biggest three teams in terms of fans.

But under the surface it’s not all that great a situation. financially Real is not in the same spot as Barcelona as their debt isn’t over €1 Billion. But Real’s debt is €900 million, so they are no longer the free spending team they used to be. Like Barcelona they have already shown signs of needing to reduce expenditures. And this level of debt means that future on-boarding of top players will suffer simply because there isn’t money left over. So if this team doesn’t win as currently constructed, there’s no money to bring in reinforcements.

Also things aren’t as happy inside the dressing room as it may seem, with long time captain (and most hated many in Liverpool) Sergio Ramos leaving, but on his way out apparently advising players not to take a pay cut so the team can use that money to bring in Mbappe. Not a great sales pitch for a player to know the former captain was talking to the team about not helping bring him in.

So could Real throw a boatload of money at the Frenchman to appease him during this cost cutting period, I’m sure they will. But can they honestly say the next 3-4 years will be all about winning? Probably not. That will be a financial reset which suggest it is better to go elsewhere and then look to go move to Real in a few years.

PSG

Now PSG, Mbappe’s current team, is a bit of an obvious choice here. Kylian is French, playing in the capital city of France. The team is owned by Qatar money so there will never be financial issues. There are top players on the team and few serious threats to winning Ligue 1 year after year (they didn’t win last year but that was an anomaly, they have won 6 of the 7 years before). Champion’s League is a default guarantee for PSG, much as it is for Real Madrid, and Kylian’s star has grown while with the team.

For PSG, the fan base isn’t as big as some others but it is growing quickly, in part thanks to the young star himself. One thing they do not have is the rich history within European football that others have, but there’s a lot to like.

There does seem to be some friction within the team with rumor being that Neymar is either not a good influence or not a fan of Kylian. More significantly though, is that Mbappe has nothing left to prove at PSG. He has won Ligue 1, multiple times. He took PSG to the Champion’s League final. He has done almost everything, so if he is looking to do something to set himself apart, it would be hard to do it at PSG, he’s already done almost everything.

Also, there is the case that PSG has ben been able to get their young star to sign yet. The team has been vocal about re-signing him. Last summer with Tuchel as the coach he would not sign. This season with new coach Mauricio Pochettino, Kylian was also unwilling to sign. Does that mean he doesn’t want to stay or won’t sign in future, not necessarily, but he has been given the opportunity to sign many times and has chosen not to.

It’s not the money because PSG will pay whatever their young star wants, so he is either looking for a new challenge which PSG cannot provide or he doesn’t believe in their future, which I’m sure they have tried to sell him on … unsuccessfully. No guarantee there won’t be a change of mind and we see the star re-sign with PSG, but if it’s what he really wanted to do, he would have done it already.

The Default Favorite

Liverpool

Which comes down to the last of the top teams. Liverpool is the last one, has no fatal flaws and frankly checks just about every box Mbappe would want. Winning team (recently one Premier League and Champion’s League), not a perennial winner (last year was close to a disaster before it was rescued) but not so successful that he would be just another player on the team, he would be an essential piece for any silverware, top players and good leaders, and a top coach. So in reality, Mbappe to Liverpool is the smartest scenario.

Having rescued a horrible season last year and made it to third was a monumental task with a huge story line. Liverpool is playing in Champion’s League this year, essential to any star. Liverpool have been shown to be mortal after a runaway title win and now need reinforcements to take them back up the mountain. Joining Liverpool and taking them back to a title would be viewed as a major achievement, with significant glory going to the new incoming players.

From a play point of view, this last year showed Liverpool to be a team that can generate chances but has a hard time finishing. A good finisher could reach unprecedented goal totals and bolster his name as a top player. Additionally Liverpool’s coach Jurgen Klopp, well liked by the French star (and most other players too), has shown the ability to take good players and make them great.

The idea that a 22 year old who is already a star might go from his current form to an even higher level would have to be appealing. Getting better and growing while winning silverware for a historic team with a massive fan base. That is almost the perfect combination. Mbappe to Liverpool is too good to pass up. The other probably irrelevant item to note but fun for Liverpool fans to think about is Mbappe and part Liverpool owner Lebron James are business partners if not even friends. It wouldn’t matter, unless is does, maybe just a bit.

The only question for Liverpool is financial. They are not in the realm of Real or Barcelona in terms of money, and they are not financed by foreign money. However Liverpool have gotten a significant recent investment from sale of 10% of FSG (Liverpool’s owner) which would help to finance not only the income loss during covid but potentially player purchases. Throw that in with Liverpool’s decision to take a different type of sponsorship deal with Nike that rewards them for higher jersey sales and all of it starts to take shape.

Look at it as a complete picture: Liverpool signed a deal with a sponsor that gives them higher benefit if they can sign a mega star; Liverpool bring in a new investor to fund a huge deal if available to bring in said star; Liverpool are solid at the back and last year brought in a creative midfielder in Thiago to spring their forwards; Liverpool’s forward position is a need now, with the current front three of Salah, Firmino and Mane not finishing.

All of this sets up for Liverpool to fix everything in one swoop: Kylian Mbappe to Liverpool. They would get a premier star to sell jerseys, their forward line would get a huge boost and they now have the money to do it all.

Mbappe to Liverpool

On the other side, the Frenchman would get to play for a team steeped in history. Winning at Liverpool means more, it just does. He would also be viewed as a shining knight coming in to save the team from their last season woes and take it to new heights. The silverware would come as well. And the crowning reason is that Liverpool is built to win now.

In 3 to 4 years they will need a refresh, and once Kylian has won with Liverpool, at that point he would look to move and Liverpool could sell him to Real who would by then have their financial situation under control (hopefully). The French star could oversee a period of historic winning with Liverpool, leave when a refresh is needed and go to the same at another team. His legacy would only get bigger.

So while Kylian Mbappe ended his lackluster Euro 2020 campaign in just about the worst way possible for a footballer, not scoring on the deciding penalty kick, his summer could set him up for legendary status down the road. Not saying he is going to Liverpool because that’s what the rumors are, but it just makes too much sense for everyone involved, Mbappe included, for him to be anywhere else. Mbappe to Liverpool it is! Cheers!