Manchester City have had a rough year in the EPL (we’re not even bringing up the damaging two year Champions League ban). Why? Well it seems to depend on which pundit you ask and which way the wind is blowing that day.
There are a number of explanations, but many seem to blame the injury to Aymeric Laporte which had a knock on effect. It forced Fernandinho into a defensive position and all of a sudden without his presence in the midfield the team fell apart and can no longer be a consistent winner. But wait, there’s more, Vincent Kompany left in the summer and the leadership he brought along with his ability as a center back position was too much for the team to bear.
Right now all Man City fans are nodding their head, feeling hard done by that one injury. Opposing fans are saying that’s a cheap excuse and hoping that it really is.
So I actually sat down to look at the numbers and found something a bit surprising in terms of changes from last year to this year. Let me set the record straight and say that Laporte is a top player so he will be missed no matter what, but in the end it’s a cheap-ish excuse because it’s not the real reason Man City aren’t winning at the pace they were last year. Let me explain by taking each point one by one and get to the real issue.
Aymeric Laporte Injury
Laporte went down with an injury and yes, this is big, but you only need to look at Liverpool who lost Joel Matip early in the season, was replaced by Dejan Lovren who himself also went down with an injury. And if you want to go even further, Virgil Van Dijk actually went down with an injury too and should have been replaced by Fabinho, but he too was injured. So in steps Jordan Henderson to play center back, with Joe Gomez, for the first time in his life in the Club World Cup.
Think about it, Liverpool is playing their 6th string center back (who has never played in that position before). And yet the winning train keeps on chugging. On a team as talented and expensive as Man City, should we be expecting less? Do they really have no cover for an injury?
The bottom line is that injuries happen. In fact, injuries from full season 2017-18 to 2018-19 increased by 15% in terms of man games lost. This has been a trend for a few years and relying on the injury excuse because there isn’t anyone else on the team to take over is a little cheap (not a lot cheap, but a bit).
Fernandinho Playing in Defense
Fernandinho is not a center back by trade but clearly coach Pep Guardiola considers him better than Otamendi, who is no slouch having been acquired for about £34m in 2015 and he’s only 31, and Stones, who is 25 years old and was acquired in 2016 for £47m . So picking two of Fernandinho, Otamendi and Stones, you would have to think that center defense should be a strong position.
But the “reason” used is not that Fernandinho isn’t good enough in defense, it’s that his expertise is missing from the midfield. This pill is a bit hard to swallow for the simple fact that Rodri was acquired in the summer for £62.8m to replace Fernandinho … for the express purpose of replacing the guy he is now replacing. You have a hugely expensive top shelf player expressly acquired to plug into the midfield position you’re complaining about, so frankly your “reason” kind of becomes an excuse.
Man City Missing Kompany
The “reason” that confuses the most when you really look at the numbers is that Man City are missing Vincent Kompany. Take a step back and think about that one. In 2018-19 Kompany appeared in less than half of Man City games and played about 35% of the total EPL minutes. He is 33 years old and on the decline. How can you say that’s the most valuable guy on the team, the one you can’t live without?
It’s not that his leadership isn’t missed, but you have to believe that with a team of high priced him end stars that Pep has put together, there’s more than one leader in the dressing room. And if there isn’t, that points to a whole different reason to fail … which leads us to …
Poor Player Acquisition Decisions (If all the above is true)
The simple fact is that if an injury to one player (Laporte) is blamed for sinking the season, that is a failing of team management in not getting the right players to have as backups. And if you spend £62.8m for a replacement of your 34 year old midfielder and didn’t get the right guy, that’s a failing of team management.
If you let a player as essential as Kompany go and don’t replace him, that’s a failing of team management. Man City have spent tons and tons of money for the last decade, in fact spending more than 5 times what Liverpool has spent in the last 5 years of transfers, so if you don’t have the right players to cover one injury, don’t blame the injury, blame management and the coach for back acquisitions.
And yet, I’m not buying this either. Man City (as much as Liverpool fans might not like to hear it) have world class players. Stones, Otamendi, Fernandinho, Rodri, these are players valued at tens of millions in the transfer market, so crying that they’re not good enough doesn’t hold a lot of water. And that they’re playing with the likes of Raheem Sterling, Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Agüero, says that this isn’t a player issue.
If it was truly a player issue, Pep would have gone out and gotten another defender in the mid season transfer window and fixed the problem. But that’s the point, personnel isn’t the problem and Pep knows it (yes, I just cracked to code as to why Man City didn’t acquire a defender in the winter transfer window, you’re welcome). Again, I’m not saying that losing Laporte doesn’t hurt, but with all of the world class players that Man City have, the drop off shouldn’t be this significant. So what’s the real reason?
The Real Reason
It’s magic. Well, not Harry Potter magic, but the dark arts. And not Voldemort dark magic, but football’s dark arts of stealing yards on throw-ins and free kicks, of slowing playing and wasting time, of preventing opponents from taking a quick free kick and others. But the one that has been the hallmark of Pep teams more than any other is the tactical foul. If there’s a counter attack that you’re vulnerable to, take a tactical foul. If your defensive partner is out of position, put more of a shoulder into the opponent and take a tactical foul.
This policy has worked well for Guardiola and has frustrated opponents for years because referees are hesitant to call fouls on everything and even more hesitant to hand out cards. Or I should say, were more hesitant, because this year, Pep’s schtick is up. And of course I have the numbers to prove it.
Think back to 2018-19, in the pivotal January game that Man City beat Liverpool. Fans remember the ball being 11mm from scoring but kicked off the line.
But how many have forgotten the Kompany tackle on Salah? Let’s see it again and review what should have been given:
- Wreckless slide (from that far away, for sure) – at least a yellow
- Studs up (can’t argue that one) – at least a yellow but should be a red
- Last man back (thereby preventing a clear and obvious scoring opportunity) – at least a yellow
Keep in mind if Salah doesn’t jump to save himself he comes away with something broken or torn in his ankle or knee. To be clear on this tackle, Kompany … ain’t got nothing but red card, eight days a week (yeah, you see what I did there #Beatles).
But all Kompany got was a yellow card and the game played on. If he had been rightly given a red, Liverpool wins the match and wins the league, but the Pep Dark Arts win again. See Guardiola tells his players to make those tackles and challenges which puts the referee into difficult position. It takes a lot of nerve for a referee to send a player off, and similarly a lot of conviction to card a player early and to card a team often. And Man City has been playing on that since Pep arrived.
But the worm has turned. This year games are being called a bit differently. Not a lot, but just enough. Maybe it’s VAR, maybe it’s more awareness of tactical fouls, maybe Pep has lost his magic, but either way, it has spelled disaster for Man City.
| Increases from prior season: | Man City | League |
| Fouls Per Game | 20.0% | 3.6% |
| Yellows Given Per Game | 62.4% | 8.5% |
| Yellows Given Per Foul | 35.3% | 4.7% |
Fouls per game are up 3.6%. More is being called, people are more aggressive, it happens. That doesn’t seem like a lot, and for many teams it isn’t. But Man City is way above the average. The Sky Blues are averaging 20% more fouls per game. Yes, you read that right, 20% more when the average is 3.6%. The little bumps and tricks are getting noticed and it’s hurting Man City. And not just because they are giving up more free kicks, more fouls means more cards.
Overall the whole league is getting called tighter. Yellow cards per game are also up, and even more than fouls. There are 8.5% more yellow cards per game this season. It’s fairly evenly distributed among all teams, with a team like Liverpool for example are getting slightly less yellows per game and a few others getting a slightly more. But the Reds under Klopp have always been fairly clean team (Fabinho’s hands-up-foot-in specialty excepted of course).
And last year, Man City were clean too. In fact last year only Liverpool got less yellows than Man City. This year again Liverpool is in last place for yellow cards, but Man City has jumped up to 7th place in the EPL for total yellow cards. From 19th to 7th in the rankings for total yellow cards for the season, they went from getting 1.16 yellow cards per game last year to 1.88 per game this year. That’s a big jump. The league is at 8.5% more yellows and Man City are at 62.4% more yellows. Just wow!
Playing on a yellow card means that a player has to be more careful, can’t go as strong into tackles and must sometimes hold back on a challenge. That can make a big difference in the way that you play and can make the difference between stopping an opponent and letting him by. Because if you do play a touch too rough to stop a strong counter attack, then the second yellow can flash and you’re out of the game (hi Oleksandr).
So the jump in yellows is a big part of the issue, but there’s a stat even deeper that really highlights the issue for Man City: yellows per foul. On any given play, there’s a likelihood of getting a yellow card (statistically speaking). The league is handing out more yellows in general, with 5% more yellow per foul. So this season a player is 5% more likely to get a card for any given foul than last year. But Man City, they blow that away. Man City players are 35% more likely to get a yellow when fouling this year compared to last year. That’s huge.
The effect of carrying yellows and being called more tightly is having a significant effect on Man City, and in the latter half of games players need to be more and more careful to not pick up another card. This is affecting their ability to be aggressive.
And they are also getting more red cards as well. Last year for the whole season Man City got 1 red card. This year through 25 games they’re already at 3 red cards (although one was Ederson losing his mind – in his defense he wanted to support Alisson at Liverpool who pulled a booboo the week before). Red cards are mostly indicative of individual players making poor decisions, but still, getting more yellows in games means a higher likelihood of getting more reds as well.
So in accepting that the injury and player “reason” doesn’t hold that much weight in a team as wealthy (both financially and in quality players) as Man City, there is clearly something else going on, and the fouling numbers spell it out. Being called on more fouls and being given more cards is clearly having an effect.
The sneaky “dark arts” tactical fouling that Guardiola has instilled in his side are now biting Man City. The league overall is being called a bit tighter, but Man City whose fouls were right on the boarder line and last year weren’t over that line, now find themselves in a new world where they are just over the line and are being called. And it’s completely ruining their season.
It’s not the injury, it’s not losing a player and it’s not about having not enough high quality players, it’s all about failing dark arts. Pep may have lost his magic.
Daniel is a professionally designated accountant who has spent 20 years in the finance and data analytics field which has skewed his view of the sporting world. Instead of seeing simply an athletic competition, he sees a financial exercise waiting to be unlocked by data analysis. He enjoys reading professional publications such as the annual deloitte football report and team financials as well as spending hours putting together and analyzing football data, which saves his readers from having to do it themselves.